By Tom Tabler, PhD
Professor, Extension Poultry Specialist
University of Tennessee Extension Service/Animal Science Department
Middle Tennessee AgResearch and Education Center
Spring Hill, Tennessee
I grew up on a small farm in west central Arkansas, acquiring firsthand many common-sense virtues one can access growing up on a farm. But as I’ve gotten older, I’ve noticed that common sense no longer seems so common.
This is understandable, to a degree. Although a farm is an excellent venue to acquire common sense, less than 2% of the US population farms these days.
Common sense on the farm
As kids, my two younger brothers and I made thousands of mud pies. But after the first one, we didn’t eat them anymore.
I learned other lessons the hard way, too. If you fight large wasp nests with a squirt bottle full of water, expect to get stung, often. Walk too close behind a skittish horse and you’re liable to get kicked. These things only need to happen a time or two before common sense kicks in.
Common sense also tells me not to drink raw milk today, although I drank it until I went to college and was none the worse for wear from it.
So, what does common sense have to do with current egg prices? Eggs are expensive these days. Most folks realize this without knowing why. I’m aware of this because I’ve recently spoken with reporters from the Washington Post, SELF magazine, four TV stations and three smaller newspapers, along with countless county agents assisting their clientele and my dear cousin in Nebraska.
They all ask the same question: Why are egg prices so high? It’s not their fault they don’t know. No one ever explained the common-sense reasons to them.
The ‘why’ behind high egg prices
Let’s approach this like chopping stove wood — one stick at a time. First, multiple factors are in play when it comes to egg prices today, with one factor being a much bigger player than all the rest.
Inflation
Since 2023, the cost of everything, including eggs, has increased for the American consumer.
Supply chain
Supply chain issues are a holdover from the COVID-19 pandemic and continue to plague the egg industry.
Laying hens lay eggs every day, paying no mind to whether it’s Thanksgiving, Christmas, your son’s football game or your daughter’s soccer game. They still lay eggs that must be gathered, sorted, washed, packed and shipped.
Unfortunately, the table-egg industry struggles to find workers and suffers from a labor shortage. Why? Since the COVID-19 pandemic, it seems that more people want to work remotely or set their own schedules. But more so, I believe, it’s because farming is hard work, with long hours at lower wages than competing businesses can pay. Much of the American workforce today will not work hard for long hours at low pay.
HPAI outbreak
The main factor driving the spike in egg prices is the ongoing highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak that shows no let-up and has resulted in the loss of tens of millions of table-egg-laying hens that we rely on for our egg supply.
In December 2024 alone, 13.2 million laying hens were lost. In the first 6 weeks of 2025, another 23.5 million layers were lost. We have lost an average of 1% of the laying flock per week over the last 10 weeks. That’s 10% of all US table-egg layers gone in a heartbeat.
So, the common-sense reason why egg prices are high is basic supply and demand. The supply is low and the demand is high, so the price goes up.
Replacing lost hens takes time
I expect egg prices to remain high for at least the remainder of 2025. Lost hens will be replaced but not overnight.
It takes 3 weeks for a fertile hen egg to hatch into a baby chick. Then it takes 20 to 22 weeks for that chick to reach sexual maturity and start laying eggs.
The hen doesn’t start laying Grade A large eggs right out of the chute, however. Her first eggs are small, and it takes a few more weeks before she works up to laying the Grade A large eggs you find in the grocery store.
Thus, it takes roughly 6 months to raise table-egg layers and bring them into production. With the current HPAI outbreak, layers lost in January/February 2025 can’t be replaced before July/August 2025, at the earliest.
Table-egg layers are often on large complexes that may house 1 million to 5 million birds across multiple barns. Recent USDA policy has been that if one bird on a complex tests positive for HPAI, the entire complex is euthanized to prevent disease spread.
This is not a sustainable practice! We can’t continue euthanizing hens faster than we replace them and get egg prices down. Changes to that policy may be coming with a new administration, a new secretary of agriculture and the recent approval from USDA of a conditional license to Zoetis for an HPAI vaccine.
I’m aware of the trade implications that might come with vaccination. However, I believe the risk is worth taking. We export very few eggs compared to broiler meat. Table-egg folks have suffered much greater losses than broiler folks because of the outbreak and need some assistance.
Biosecurity
Biosecurity remains critical. Vaccination would not be a substitute for biosecurity, so I advise you to continue practicing three key biosecurity measures:
- Isolation: Isolate your flock as much as possible from other birds and people.
- Traffic control (vehicular, human and otherwise): Keep a visitors’ log and know who comes and goes and why. If you have farm workers, make sure they understand biosecurity and do not have access to other birds outside of work.
- Sanitation: Sanitation is your friend. Clean and disinfect everything — people, materials, equipment, etc. Use a footbath and change it often to keep it effective. Dedicate footwear to be worn only in the chicken house to avoid tracking something inside.
HPAI won’t just appear in your chicken house. It must be put there. Biosecurity is designed to prevent putting it there, but you must practice biosecurity for it to work. Dedicate the extra time and effort required for that work.
HPAI heartbreak
It is heartbreaking to see what happens on a farm that has an HPAI outbreak and what it does to the people involved. I worked with USDA in California for 2 weeks in late December 2024 assisting with mass-mortality composting disposal of HPAI-affected flocks. Mass-mortality disposal is not cheery work.
Aside from the massive expense incurred by USDA-APHIS for indemnity payments, depopulation, disposal, personnel, equipment rental, biosecurity gear, resources (carbon material for composting, foam, CO2, etc.) and logistics, producers suffer serious physical, emotional, mental and financial stress.
Consumers’ wallets are suffering, too. For the week of February 14, 2025, prices for national trading of truckload quantities of graded, loose, white large shell eggs increased to $7.74 per dozen.1 Compare that to the $1.67 per dozen national average in 2021 before the current HPAI outbreak started.2
Thanks to my speech teacher
I’m introverted most of the time. When I was a freshman in college, my speech teacher told me it was OK to be introverted, but I needed to learn to act extroverted during those times when action was called for (she was only about 24 at the time and wise beyond her years). This is one of those times.
The current US policy on HPAI needs to be revised. We also need to improve and enforce biosecurity and consider vaccination to reduce reliance on widespread euthanasia (which isn’t working).
I’ve been told my entire life that doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is the definition of insanity. With this HPAI outbreak, I’ve had enough insanity. Let’s use common sense and try a different approach to HPAI.
I’ll help. I’ll work hard for long hours at low pay if it ends the heartbreak I saw in California. Cheaper egg prices will just be gravy.
Growing up on the farm, we had barnyard chickens, along with a diverse menagerie of other interesting critters. Little did I know then that chickens would eventually pay the bills throughout my career. I’ve had both good times and bad in the poultry business and hope to have a few more before the adventure ends.
Editor’s note: The opinions and/or recommendations presented in this article belong to the author and are not necessarily shared by Modern Poultry.
1. USDA. Egg Markets Overview. Available at: https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf. Accessed: February 19, 2025.
2. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2024. Consumer price index. Available at: https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-average-price-data.htm. Accessed: February 19, 2025.
